Satyam Goel

I am a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University of Liverpool, where I am being advised by Professor Oliver de Groot and Dr. Yavuz Arslan.

Before joining Liverpool, I received my M.Res. in Economics from the University of Bristol, an M.Sc. in Financial Economics from the University of Glasgow, and my undergraduate B.A. (Honours) degree in Economics from the University of Delhi.

Research Interests: Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Housing Markets

• In response to the 2016 referendum on EU Membership and the ensuing uncertainty as to the eventual consequences of Brexit, the Bank of England (BoE) adopted various methods of influencing market rates, including conventional, unconventional monetary policy measures and communications on forward guidance. To investigate the effectiveness of BoE’s communication, we first decompose long-dated yields into a risk neutral and term premium component. Text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee minutes is then used to measure the stance of policy, attitudes to QE and Brexit. We show that the Bank’s communication strategy acted to complement the stance of monetary policy, which had responded by lowering Bank rate and expanding QE, and acted to lower the term premium that might otherwise have risen in response to Brexit uncertainty.

• This paper introduces a curated collection of influential articles from Urban Studies that explore the sophisticated connections between population change, urban amenities, and productivity in cities. It reveals how elements like migration, firm location, economic specialization, and local amenities interact to shape urban growth, drawing attention to the vital roles of housing and labor markets as well as transportation systems in mediating these dynamics. Rather than viewing these factors in isolation, the paper emphasizes their interdependence, illustrating how cities evolve as complex ecosystems that attract people and businesses, foster innovation, and drive economic vitality. Concluding with a look at emerging research directions, the paper invites further exploration into how cities can enhance livability and sustainability for the future.

• Intergenerational Distributional Impact of the Zero Lower Bound

In this paper, we build an OHANK (overlapping generations heterogeneous agent New Keynesian) model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. We present an analysis of how such a ZLB constraint on the monetary policy leads to inter-generational redistributive effects when there is a change in the preferences of the households following a discount factor shock that alters their consumption-saving behaviour and the interest rates remain low for long.

• This research has been presented at the ESRC- NW Social Science PhD Conference-2023 and in the seminar series of the Economics Group at the University of Liverpool (2022).

• This research has been presented at Oxford-CEPR RPN Workshop on Central Bank Communication (2024), the ECONDAT Spring Meeting (2024) at King's College London, the 'Text as Data in Economics' Workshop at the University of Liverpool (2024), the 14th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference (2021 and 2024) and seminars at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of Liverpool, and Brunel University London.

• Following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Euro Area faced significant inflation, leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten monetary policy. I use an Overlapping Generations Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (O-HANK) model calibrated to the Euro Area to examine the redistributive effects of high inflation and monetary tightening on households across the age distribution and over the life cycle. I use the model to generate a scenario that captures the 2021–2023 inflation episode. I find that high inflation impacts households unevenly due to age-related differences in asset holdings and labor income. On impact, all generations incur wealth losses from high inflation, with those nearing retirement hit hardest and the youngest affected least; these losses are larger when the central bank responds more aggressively to inflation deviations in its policy rule. However, over the life cycle, inflation is regressive, benefiting middle-aged cohorts at the expense of the younger and older generations, and a more aggressive monetary policy stance to control inflation enhances welfare for individuals aged 50 and above.

• This research was presented in the seminar series of the Economics Group at the University of Liverpool (2024) and the Royal Economic Society PhD Conference (2024). It is scheduled for presentation at the Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference (April 7–9, 2025) in Glasgow.

Book Chapters

Book chapter in Research Handbook on Housing, the Home and Society. Edited by K. Jacobs, K. Flanagan, J. Verdouw, and J. de Vries. Extent: c 672 pp. Edward Elgar, 2024. ISBN: 978-1-80037-596-3

Monetary Policies and their Housing Consequences

Proposed chapter for Maclennan, D., Pawson, H., & Miao. A Political Economy for the Housing of Nations, 2025

Media: Sydney Morning herald

How does the housing market affect financial and economic stability?

• Policy article - Economics Observatory

• with Oliver de Groot

satyam.goel[at]liverpool.ac.uk

Contact

University of Liverpool Management School,

Chatham Street,

Liverpool, L69 7ZH, U.K.